Gemworld Reports on 2024 Expectations
Gary Roskin
Roskin Gem news Report
Stuart Robertson, president of Gemworld International, and Brecken Branstrator, editor in chief of Gemworld’s GemGuide, offered their annual prediction of what is anticipated for 2024.
Current Trends and The Near-Term Outlook for the Gemstone Market
Robertson and Branstrator spoke about the past holiday season, what was up, what was down, and then moved forward with some of the current influences in the market. There were a few gem trends, with a little bit of pricing history, and finally, shared a few thoughts on sourcing.
Consumer Confidence
Robertson noted that U.S. holiday sales results, as analyzed through MasterCard’s spending polls, showed that jewelry sales were off by 2%. But that’s not bad, noted Robertson, considering we were coming off a few years of pretty strong gains [due to covid sales while consumers were staying safe at home, shopping online]. Post pandemic, dining out and leisure activities are back, pulling purchases away from jewelry.
Fine Quality Gems
Consumers’ current financial confidence is “soft,” but at the same time, optimistic. Even while people recognize the impact of inflation and the cost of credit, sales at the highest price levels, for the highest quality gemstones, appear to be unaffected.
Why Prices are Not Going Down
“If we look at some of the influence of market drivers, the reality is, costs for producing at the mining level of this industry, along with transportation costs for moving goods, are still exceptionally high.”
Natural Fine Quality Gems – Availability is Key
“The other consideration is that when you look in terms of natural fine quality gems, availability is always low,” says Robertson. And that keeps prices where they are. “There has not been any softening of prices at the higher level.” In the Fine and Extra Fine categories, there’s simply not enough material to produce the type of pressure to push prices down. “The idea that an influx of material is going to help alleviate price pressures is unrealistic.”
Price and Demand
“If anything, prices will hold,” says Robertson, “and possibly continue to move up in those categories, simply because there just isn’t enough production to support any downward movement.”
As expected, demand is soft for lower quality goods. “This is directly related to the consumer base that typically buys that material,” says Robertson. “They felt the greatest impact from the economy over the past year and a half.”
Discretionary Income
As Robertson rightfully pointed out, nobody needs jewelry. It is a discretionary purchase. And when household essentials are more expensive than budget can support, these types of discretionary expenditures are removed from the wish list.
The Tucson Mantra
Robertson repeated what the experts have said for years… that if you see something you need, buy it. Do not wait. The competition is right behind you. Someone else will buy it before you have a chance to come back. “It always sounds like a plug for the show, but the simple reality is this… if you see a gemstone, especially in the finer quality… at this show, this is the time to buy it. The competition that exists in Tucson often produces the buying, and selling, opportunity for the year.”
A Wide Range of Color
Forget Pantone. That’s fashion. It doesn’t have anything to do with what is available. And our personal taste should not influence our inventory, says Robertson. “The consumer market has an appetite for really unusual materials right now. The gemstone color palette is so wide, we should be adventurous with what gets put forward.” The big three will always sell well, but now is the time to consider exploring more unique colors, as the consumer is certainly open to it.
Color & Source Trend – Montana
“Montana Sapphire is very popular right now, especially in the North American market,” notes Robertson. “It has been for a few years.” It’s a well-known source, going back centuries for some of this material. You also see very unique colors [and clarities], performing well for the designer market, as well as independent custom jewelers, even the mainstream “Mom & Pop” stores.
Supply and Demand
Knowing what’s available is key. It may be too obvious to state, but you cannot sell what you do not have. Which leads to the challenge of sourcing finer goods. “Small scale production is returning, but it’s not at the capacity that it was before the pandemic.”
Marketing Supply Chain Transparency
“‘Traceability’ and ‘Sustainability’ are being promoted as the keys to the future of our industry,” notes Robertson with some hesitation. While some of the big houses like Tiffany & Co. have been promoting this for years, Robertson points out that “we have to keep in mind, that ‘supply chain transparency’ in the artisanal mining sector generally focuses on garnets, tourmalines, zircons, and the like. Why? Because it’s difficult to compete with emerald, ruby, and sapphire, which are now more and more controlled by large mining companies.” And when evaluating these types of programs and claims, notes Robertson, you will want focus on the reality of what’s being done, versus what’s simply being used as a marketing point. There has been positive movement in this effort, but one should still be watchful.
Shout Out to Columbia Gem House
Robertson recalled that Eric Braunwart, Founder of Columbia Gem House in Vancouver Washington, got a lot of attention two decades ago, when they established the first ethical sourcing protocols specific to the gem trade. Robertson identified Braunwart as the father of the movements that are now taking place.
Branstrator’s Five Forecasts
1. Think Green
“I think we’re going to be seeing a lot more green this year,” says Branstrator. “Emerald, for one, is having a resurgence.” Yes, it’s one of the big three that always performs well. But as Branstrator points out, “it’s much more affordable and there’s greater availability,” than ruby and sapphire.
Other than emeralds, Branstrator mentioned seeing more green garnets in the trade, e.g. mint garnets, tsavorites, and demantoids. To accentuate the point, Branstrator’s observations at the AGTA Spectrum Awards noted that “of the 300 to 400 or so entries, color was skewed pretty heavily in the greens or even blue greens.”
2. Demand is Stabilizing Prices
Pricing, as mentioned above, is holding stable for a lot of varieties, especially in the fine goods. Branstrator noted that the 2023 June and September Hong Kong shows reported price resistance, for some of the more expensive high-quality stones. But demand and limited supply kept prices strong.
Designers seeking the Affordable Look
Not so surprising, designers are looking for affordable gem materials to work with. Branstrator points to designers now using bi-colored stones, but not in the classical definition. “Montana Sapphires are zoned a little bit differently than maybe it was appreciated before. They’re finding lighter tones, and making use of interesting clarity characteristics. Maybe you put the growth zone right under the table, instead of trying to hide it. And they are using unique gems like unheated Zoisite.”
3. Non-traditional Cuts – Go Fly a Kite
We’re also seeing better use of more unique cuts. “This trend has been building for a while,” notes Branstrator. “Kites, and hexagons have been popular for a few years now, and I think that’s leading to this growing appreciation of independent designers finding their own designs while using these unique cuts.” To emphasize this, Branstrator notes that Fuli Gems, miner/supplier of Chinese peridot, has launched their own “Fuli Cut,” based off an antique cushion cut style. “I’ve heard of another dealer, out of Bangkok, who is marketing portrait cuts in Ruby. So I think cutting is going to be a very interesting space to watch this year.”
4. Traveling to the Source – The Story is the Key
Responsible sourcing is becoming more than a catch phrase. Branstrator noted that “more designers and retailers are wanting to know exactly where their stones are coming from. Some are even traveling to the source, being able to share these visits as part of their storytelling in the marketplace.” Branstrator also mentioned that she had heard from designers who had traveled to Brazil’s Cruzeiro tourmaline mine, about the impact that it had on them, not only on their designs, but the storytelling about the people and the community.
5. An Uptick in Greenwashing – Promoting ALL the Buzz Words
Your “sustainability” and “green” claims are a huge conversation right now. Branstrator mentioned that JVC has seen a pretty big uptick in greenwashing lawsuits being filed in the U.S., and the FTC has been sending letters to lab grown diamond marketers about their wordage, about how they’re describing their products.
And there’s been greater enforcement in the EU.
Branstrator also noted that “The Green Guides” are up for revision this year, which is huge undertaking considering that it’s been about a decade since they have been revised. “This includes sustainability claims, marketing claims, and terms like ‘recycled” … they are all up for discussion. I think that’s a major topic for us to keep our attention on this year.”
We will continue our report next week as we look at Gemworld’s 2024 Market Trends. Stay tuned. – gr
Stuart Robertson President, Gemworld International, Inc.
Stuart Robertson, GIA GG., is an award-winning gemologist and appraiser. He is president of Gemworld International, Inc., and serves as research director for the company’s publication, GemGuide. Stuart is the immediate past-president of the Accredited Gemologists Association. He is also a senior member of the National Association of Jewelry Appraisers and serves as conference chair.
Stuart has extensive experience as an appraiser. He completed the International Society of Appraisers, Appraisal Principles Core Courses in 1993. Today, he limits his appraisal assignments to special projects, trial consultant and expert witness work.
Stuart is a recipient of the prestigious Antonio C. Bonanno Award for Excellence in Gemology (2011.) He received the AIJV Valuer of the Year Award in 2014 and The Scottish Gemmological Association’s Catriona Orr McInnes Award in 2019.
Brecken Branstrator, Editor in Chief, GemGuide
Brecken Branstrator is the editor-in-chief of Gemworld International’s GemGuide publication, the industry leader for gemstone pricing and market information and trends.
She has written about gems and jewelry for a decade and has dedicated herself to covering the colored gemstone sector in depth from topics like supply and pricing to responsible sourcing developments and other issues of interest.
She has traveled extensively across the United States and internationally to attend trade shows and conferences or visit brands and source markets firsthand. She is also a GIA Graduate Gemologist.
