Part II: Gemworld Reports on 2024 Expectations
Gary Roskin
Roskin Gem News Report
How Much and Can I Get It?
The World of Color from Gemworld International
As a continuation of the presentation by Gemworld’s Stuart Robertson* and Brecken Branstrator* at AGTA’s Elevated Seminar Series in Tucson, our Part II focuses on Gem Notes.
In Place of the Big Three
Affordability and availability were two big topics of discussion during the second half of the presentation. (Read the first half, Part I, here.)
Ruby, Sapphire, and Emerald are a bit pricey these days, and that opens the door for the similar color, colored gems, says Robertson.
And so in general, for the typical “bread and butter” range of gems in the industry, at a few thousand dollars price point, (e.g. spinels, rhodolite garnets, and rubellite tourmalines) are gems that have seen fairly strong consumer interest.
Zircon
Robertson noted that Zircon is certainly one gem to watch. “It has a very long history in the trade, and is currently popular in most of its available colors – and much of which is below a $400 price point.”
Browns, cognacs, yellows, greens, and of course, blues all appear to be selling well. The pinks and reds are a bit more challenging to get, Robertson noted.
Sapphire
“To no one’s surprise, sapphire continues to be a top seller in the western market.” There is strong demand for “no heat,” unheated sapphire notes Robertson, but the heated material is also selling well, “as long as you’re not dealing with diffusion treatment.” [Diffusion treatment is a subsection of heat-treated material – gr].
In the fancy colors, demand for the true Padparadscha [pastel pink-orange] color is also very good, but the supply is very limited, “especially on anything over small sizes.”
Robertson also pointed to Montana sapphire, which has been very popular over the past couple of years, as it has moved from the designers’ market into the main stream.
Ruby
Robertson was quick to point out that ruby has become pretty much a one-source stone [referring to Gemfields’ Mozambique Montepuez ruby deposit – gr].
“In the ‘low heat,’ ‘no heat’ categories, it’s gotten expensive enough to really limit its accessibility in a large part of our industry. It’s a specialized market at this point. Sophisticated buyers recognize the rarity of fine ruby in general, though it is basically cost prohibitive for most retail stores.”
One other side note on ruby, as Robertson reminded the audience, there is a range of color in Ruby. “We sometimes forget that because there are some entities who seem to call the entire range of Ruby color ‘Pigeon’s Blood.’” The reality of course is that there is a range of color, and historically, only the best color was termed “Pigeons Blood.”
The Chinese Market
The Chinese market is still very strong, but Robertson did express some caution, noting that China’s economy is “certainly under pressure,” but it is a very large economy… like the U.S., where even though the U.S. is under pressure, there are still plenty of people buying gems and jewelry.
The Consumer Determines the Market
Cost should always be a consideration of what belongs in inventory. However, this is not based upon what the jeweler can afford, but is almost always based upon what their clients will spend.
And this has Robertson concerned.
“This market is operating right now in a way that auctions are behaving. They all seem to have, at least to some extent, a built-in price increase each and every auction cycle.”
Tourmaline
Tourmaline’s broad palette of colors are very popular right now. The Paraiba vivid blues have gotten much harder to find in recent years, especially in larger sizes. But even with Indicolite’s and Paraiba’s challenging supply, tourmaline is still very popular. “We think that tourmaline is going to be another one of those good sellers again this year,” says Robertson, “especially the green and the red material.”
Garnets
“As we mentioned last year, garnets continue to be a strong seller. Purple is hard to get. Tsavorite is still selling quite well.”
Garnet is a stone that has a very long history, with strong name recognition amongst consumers. It is still perceived as affordable, even though prices have increased.
That price increase is partly a result of marketing, wholesalers and retailers focusing on the artisanal mining communities and advertising their socially responsible and ethical sourcing practices.
Even so, Robertson says that garnets, and tourmalines, “are still incredibly affordable compared to other stones of the same color.”
Beryl
Beryls are one of those stones where there is availability, but not in great numbers. Still quite affordable, most are showing up in designer work.
Of course, emerald and the lighter material (green beryl or emerald) will always be popular.
There are light green chromium colored beryls that are very attractive, both in color and in price (never reaching emerald prices).
Topaz
Blue Topaz is always the strongest gem within the category by volume. And there certainly is no shortage of blue topaz.
In the “Imperial” topaz market, Robertson says that they have seen a little bit more Imperial, Precious Topaz enter the market. “It is not cheap. It’s expensive, as it should be, because it’s not a very common stone, as far as production goes.”
Who is buying?
Expectations are very similar to what we had last year, with mostly upper middle class and high earners shopping for jewelry.
The mass-produced jewelry lines, with lower price points, and commercial grade gem materials have taken the hit since the consumers who would have purchased these items now are feeling the impact of inflation and higher interest rates.
Robertson says that they anticipate a possible easing of the higher gemstone prices later in the year, but where we do expect movement is from the lack of activity in the mid and low-end market that should push prices lower.
But don’t expect to see that in upper fine, or extra fine categories, says Robertson. Prices have strong support just because there’s not sufficient material. The lack of production does guarantee higher prices as the year advances.
Competition
As Robertson had mentioned earlier, this year, because the competition here in Tucson is quite substantial, the supply/availability of a particular gem may be limited. So, when you see something, and think you can sell it, that is when it’s the time to buy.
Pearls
Cultured pearls were probably the most hard hit product during the pandemic.
“If you’re mining, and for whatever reason, you can’t dig it out of the ground, the gems are still in the ground. You can dig them out later.
“But for cultured pearls, if you miss the cultivation cycle, then you’re behind for a couple of years. And that’s exactly what happened.”
Pearl prices are very high now because they lost entire seasons of production in most of the main categories. Therefore, you should expect to see very strong prices probably over the next 3 to 4 years.
Synthetic Diamond
Robertson and Branstrator knew that there would be questions about the pricing of synthetic diamonds, so they offered up two slides, showing prices for the same size and similar quality diamonds.
First slide Robertson puts up is from November 2019, from a diamond manufacturing company, shows a 3-carat, ideal cut, G color, SI2 clarity, synthetic diamond, priced at $11,995. Now, Robertson shows the second slide, from January of 2024, listing from the same company, another 3-carat, ideal cut, E color, VS2 clarity, synthetic diamond, (better color, better clarity) priced at just $1,295.
“Now,” says Robertson, “do we really need to say anything else about Lab Grown Diamonds?”
*Stuart Robertson President, Gemworld International, Inc.
Stuart Robertson, GIA GG., is an award-winning gemologist and appraiser. He is president of Gemworld International, Inc., and serves as research director for the company’s publication, GemGuide. Stuart is the immediate past-president of the Accredited Gemologists Association. He is also a senior member of the National Association of Jewelry Appraisers and serves as conference chair.
Stuart has extensive experience as an appraiser. He completed the International Society of Appraisers, Appraisal Principles Core Courses in 1993. Today, he limits his appraisal assignments to special projects, trial consultant and expert witness work.
Stuart is a recipient of the prestigious Antonio C. Bonanno Award for Excellence in Gemology (2011.) He received the AIJV Valuer of the Year Award in 2014 and The Scottish Gemmological Association’s Catriona Orr McInnes Award in 2019.
*Brecken Branstrator, Editor in Chief, GemGuide
Brecken Branstrator is the editor-in-chief of Gemworld International’s GemGuide publication, the industry leader for gemstone pricing and market information and trends.
She has written about gems and jewelry for a decade and has dedicated herself to covering the colored gemstone sector in depth from topics like supply and pricing to responsible sourcing developments and other issues of interest.
She has traveled extensively across the United States and internationally to attend trade shows and conferences or visit brands and source markets firsthand. She is also a GIA Graduate Gemologist.
