Andrew “Andy” Lucas is the President of Guild Gemology Education. A former GIA field gemologist and education manager, Lucas has spent more than four decades documenting the colored gemstone supply chain — from mine to market — across Africa, Asia, and South America.
At GIA, he helped develop the institute’s field gemology program, producing extensive photo and video documentation of mining regions and market centers worldwide. Since joining Guild in 2018, he has continued that mission through education and research initiatives in Asia, focusing on market transparency, gem origin, and industry training.
Andy is well-known for his detailed reporting and approachable teaching style. Combining gemological science with firsthand field experience, he brings readers and students a personal grounded perspective on how the trade truly operates.
Zambian Emeralds Show Signs of Stability
By Andy Lucas
Adapted for the Roskin Gem News Report by Gary Roskin
Let’s Head to Bangkok
After a year marked by oversupply, shifting taxes, and a temporary halt in mining, Zambia’s emerald sector may finally be finding its footing. At Gemfields’ September 2025 high-quality emerald rough auction in Bangkok—held alongside the Bangkok Gems & Jewelry Fair—all 38 lots were sold, generating $32 million in revenue. The result suggests improving demand, though whether it marks a sustained rebound remains to be seen.
From Uncertainty to Cautious Optimism
Late 2024 had been difficult. Gemfields’ previous high-quality emerald auction that November saw only 30 of 43 lots sell, totaling $16.1 million—well below expectations. A new Zambian export tax on rough emeralds added to the uncertainty, prompting the company to pause mining at Kagem in April 2025. When that tax was later lifted and signs of renewed interest appeared, mining resumed in May.
By September, participation was stronger: 65 companies were invited, up from 56 the year before, and Gemfields reported that bidding activity exceeded expectations. The company called the outcome encouraging, noting that quality goods moved briskly at firmer prices.
Prices Firm, But Perspective Matters
The Bangkok auction offered roughly 199,000 carats of rough—virtually unchanged from 2024—but achieved an average price of $160 per carat, up from $113. While this doubled total revenue, the rise should be viewed in context. Much of the 2024 slump stemmed from oversupply and lower-grade material, so the stronger prices largely reflect a return to pre-glut levels rather than a new high.
Still, dealers described the color and clarity as good, with the deeper bluish-green and pure green tones especially sought after. Parcels were also unusually uniform, easing valuation and matching for manufacturers. Some material came from an exploratory zone called Underground Tops, which produced notably fine rough, suggesting potential for future production.
Among the notable pieces on display was an 11,685-carat specimen dubbed “Embu” (The Buffalo), underscoring the scale of operations at Kagem.
What Rough Sales May (and May Not) Indicate
As Lucas points out, rough-auction results can hint at future polished-stone trends—but they don’t guarantee them. Rising rough prices often precede firmer polished prices, but with global economic uncertainty, buyers are still cautious. Most participants were Indian cutting firms from Jaipur, joined by a handful from Bangkok and Israel. No Chinese buyers attended this time, continuing a pattern seen across several gem sectors.
Kagem itself remains vast—now stretching about two kilometers long and 165 meters deep—which adds operational complexity and cost. Mining deeper and farther means slower production, higher fuel use, and more expensive recovery.
Gemfields’ Financial Crossroads
Even with the Bangkok sale’s success, Gemfields’ mid-year financials paint a more restrained picture. As National Jeweler reported, first-half 2025 revenue fell 47 percent to $64.2 million, down from $121.4 million in H1 2024, while the company swung from a $13.7 million profit to a $24.6 million loss (National Jeweler).
Management attributed the losses to production interruptions in both Zambia and Mozambique, civil unrest in Mozambique, and weaker demand in some luxury categories. CEO Sean Gilbertson described the first half as “challenging,” citing cash-flow pressures but saying he remains “cautiously optimistic” for the rest of 2025.
Gemfields has been cutting costs, selling non-core assets—including Fabergé, which went to SMG Capital for $50 million—and focusing on operational efficiency. The company’s new PP2 ruby-processing plant in Mozambique, expected to triple throughput, could provide needed revenue diversity, though results will take time to materialize.
Market Context: Slow but Steady
Luxury spending overall has cooled, yet high-jewelry demand for fine colored stones continues to provide some stability. Dealers note that premium Zambian emeralds remain popular, but the segment represents only a small fraction of total production. For now, limited supply of better material is helping support prices more than a surge in consumer demand.
Outlook
Gemfields’ September auction offers cautious reassurance rather than celebration. It shows that the Zambian emerald market can still attract competitive bidding for quality material, even amid financial strain and global headwinds. Whether this momentum continues depends on how quickly the company can stabilize operations and whether demand for fine emeralds holds through 2026.
As Lucas observed, “If you want to know what’s coming in the cut-stone market, look at the rough.” For now, that view looks a little clearer—but still through a measured, not rose-colored, lens.
Tap here to learn more about Guild Gem Laboratories and Guild Gemology Education.
