It was the second day of the AGTA’s Tucson GemFair — and the opening day of the DYNAMIC Seminar Series.
As tradition would have it, Stuart Robertson, president of Gemworld International and publisher of The GemGuide, along with Brecken Branstrator, Editor-in-Chief, took the stage for their annual industry update.
The room was standing-room only.
Their presentation, “Current Trends in Colored Gems,” promised discussion of corporate mining auctions, ethical sourcing collectives, and wholesale pricing for the Big Three. And they touched on all of it.
But what unfolded over the next hour was something more immediate.
Consumer confidence.
Tariffs.
Metal prices.
And what all of it means for the colored stone trade — right now.
Gary Roskin
Roskin Gem News Report
Consumer Confidence — and the Squeeze on the Middle
Stuart Robertson didn’t begin with color trends. He began with consumer confidence. And it wasn’t a pretty picture.
“There are some things that are going on that have a direct impact on our market,” Robertson said at the outset, “and they are generating a certain amount of real uncertainty.”
One of those things was the latest consumer confidence numbers, which Robertson says have “dropped significantly.”
And you could feel it in Tucson after the first day of the GemFair. Sales were brisk, but caution was still in the air.
The data backs that up.
Consumer confidence now stands at its lowest level in roughly 14 years — even eclipsing parts of the COVID shutdown period.
Photo: Gary Roskin
Why does that matter to jewelers?
Because, as Stuart reminded the room, jewelry is discretionary. “Our industry doesn’t sell a single necessity,” he said.
When groceries, housing, and insurance consume more of a family’s budget, discretionary spending tightens. Colored stones live entirely in that discretionary space.
Robertson also pointed out something we need to pay attention to: when confidence dips, the market rarely collapses evenly. Instead, it splits.
“What’s active today is either the really high end, scarce product — or the low end.” … “The middle of the road that was the bread and butter of our industry has been stagnant.”
That middle market is what concerns Robertson.
“It’s the independent, mom-and-pop jeweler who drives the jewelry industry here in the U.S.,” he added. “That is the backbone, that is the neighborhood store.” When the middle slows, the trade feels it.
Robertson had now claimed the room. That framing set the tone for everything that followed.
Tucson Looks Strong — But Replacement is the Real Story
On day two, Tucson feels active. Booths are busy. Orders are being written.
“This show is going to be a pretty good show,” Stuart predicted — especially at AGTA, where many exhibitors are U.S.-based and selling goods already in the country.
But that strength may be masking a deeper issue.
After walking the floors during setup and opening day, Robertson and Branstrator noticed a clear pattern.
“Individuals that basically have U.S.-based offices and are selling goods that have been in the country from their stock are doing well,” Stuart observed.
Dealers bringing goods in on carnet are having a different experience.
For decades, Tucson has operated on a simple expectation — if you see something you like, you buy it and leave with it. But when a seller must explain that delivery will occur later — and that customs payments may apply upon re-entry — the deal becomes more complicated.
So while Tucson may look strong, much of that activity reflects inventory already here, changing hands.
As pre-tariff stock depletes, replacement goods may arrive under a different cost structure. Even if tariffs moderate, last year’s baseline was effectively zero. Any new rate adds pressure.
“If a lot of the international exhibitors go back and say they didn’t sell anything,” Stuart cautioned, “people may not take the time to connect the dots to the tariffs. They may just think that the industry has slowed down dramatically.”
And that narrative could dampen sentiment at future shows in Hong Kong or Bangkok.
In short: demand for color remains solid. But replenishment costs — and the narrative coming out of Tucson — will influence how the trade feels heading into Hong Kong and Bangkok.
Metal Prices — and What They’re Doing to Design
Metal pricing is another structural force reshaping the market.
Gold and silver have risen sharply over the past year — not strictly because of jewelry demand, but largely because investors have treated metals as a safe haven amid broader economic uncertainty.
That distinction matters.
When metal prices are driven by investor behavior rather than industry demand, manufacturers are forced to adapt quickly.
“We were recently at the VicenzaOro Show in Italy,” Stuart said, describing what they observed among multi-generational manufacturers.
Instead of traditional heavy gold construction, they saw more titanium, ceramics, and alternative materials — along with noticeably lighter pieces.
“A lot of this big run-up in metal prices was a direct result of investing into metals as an alternative protection,” Stuart explained. Safe-haven investing has influenced pricing far beyond jewelry demand.
Manufacturers are adapting accordingly.
“I understand why it’s happening,” he said. “It’s metal prices.”
But he was candid about his concern.
“Our industry is built on marketing and sale of items that have no practical purpose,” he reminded the room. “We have them because they make us feel good.”
If cost control leads to ultra-lightweight construction, that sense of durability — physical and emotional — could be tested. And as we know, jewelry is meant to last.
Photo: Gary Roskin
Brecken pointed out that adaptation isn’t purely defensive.
“We’re seeing things like porcelain and ceramic as metal alternatives,” she said, along with leather and wood — “interesting materials… finding ways of bringing down the costs of their goods.”
Beads are also resurfacing in conversation.
“Over the past year plus, we’ve been hearing a lot more wholesalers talking about interest in beads,” she noted — especially saturated color beads that deliver visual impact at more accessible price points.
In other words, metal pressure is reshaping design. Alternative materials aren’t simply substitutes — they’re becoming part of the aesthetic language.
Design Trends — and Where Color Fits
Shape: Beyond materials, several design shifts stood out.
Brecken noted the growing popularity of elongated shapes. “Within color, we’re hearing a lot of things like pears and kites and ovals,” she said — silhouettes that feel current without being extreme.
Non-Traditional Gem Materials: Opaque and hard-stone ornamentals are also appearing more frequently.
“We’re seeing an increased use of the opaque stones and hard stones,” she explained, often used as inlay-style design elements. Watch faces, in particular, are incorporating materials like lapis and chrysoprase — bringing color into spaces that were once more restrained.
Old is New: Estate and antique gems are playing a role as well.
Jewelers and designers are “starting to go to the antique and estate shows,” she said, sourcing stones and metals that can be reset or redesigned — sometimes to manage costs, sometimes to offer something truly different.
It’s Personal: Bridal remains a major driver.
“Montana sapphire seems to be everywhere in bridal,” Brecken observed, particularly blended and parti-color material. The appeal is individuality — something that feels personal rather than traditional.
All About Color.
As Stuart noted earlier, consumers often describe a color when they ask for “ruby” or “sapphire.” That flexibility allows retailers to introduce spinel, tourmaline, garnet, or other materials that deliver the desired hue at different price points.
Color, in other words, has room to expand.
What’s Selling — Stone by Stone
From conversations across the show floor, several materials stood out.
Sapphire remains strong — but not just blue.
“Out of every ten sapphires he sells, two, maybe three, are blue,” Stuart relayed from one dealer. The rest are parti, teal, pink, or blended colors.
Montana sapphire, in particular, is benefiting from that shift. Zoning and unusual color presentations — once labeled commercial — are now part of the appeal.
Zircon is also performing well.
“Zircon is doing very well,” Stuart said, especially the orangey-brown and straw tones. The brilliance and price positioning make it competitive in those color ranges.
Garnet remains active, with orange material gaining attention.
Tourmaline continues to move selectively, particularly fine Paraíba-type material — though Stuart acknowledged that “the really fine stones are not easy to source.”
Ruby presents a tougher picture.
“Ruby has been priced out of the market,” he said plainly, “for anybody other than the high-end stores.”
Tanzanite has quieted somewhat. “It’s a stone with a very well-defined ceiling and floor,” Stuart noted — stable, but not generating much excitement at the moment.
At more accessible levels, dealers repeatedly mentioned citrine and amethyst as steady sellers.
Synthetic and the Colored Stone Market
Discussion also touched on synthetic color — emerald, ruby, sapphire — and how the trade is responding.
Brecken acknowledged that she has heard “a lot more rumblings of synthetic color” over the past year — concerns about parcel mixing and even the use of synthetic colored stones in design competitions.
But Stuart offered historical perspective.
“We dealt with this issue in the 1880s and 1890s with synthetic rubies,” he reminded the room. “The trade figured out how to deal with the two products successfully.”
His point was straightforward: the colored stone market has faced synthetic competition before. Laboratories exist. Disclosure standards exist. The industry has experience separating natural from synthetic material — and pricing them accordingly.
As for the disruption seen in diamonds, Stuart does not expect a similar shake-up in color. In his view, the diamond sector was slow to respond to synthetic competition. Colored stones, by contrast, have a much longer history of managing synthetics alongside natural goods.
In other words, synthetic color is not new territory for the colored stone trade. The industry has navigated this before — and Robertson sees no reason it cannot do so again.
The Bottom Line
Tucson appears strong — and in many booths, it is.
But the health of the year ahead will depend less on how quickly existing inventory sells and more on how comfortably it can be replaced.
There is robust demand for color.
There is creative adaptation in design.
There are clear winners among specific stone categories.
Yet external pressures — tariffs, consumer confidence, metal volatility — are shaping the environment in ways that have little to do with gemological fundamentals.
For now, the market is moving.
The real test begins when the showcases empty and the reorder conversations begin.
